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Promotion and Recovery Economics Workbook
Separate promotion sales from incremental demand, then evaluate coupon exposure, customer rewards, channel moves and recovery of returned goods.
Separate promotion sales from incremental demand, then evaluate coupon exposure, customer rewards, channel moves and recovery of returned goods.
Choose the alternative before measuring a campaign. Some customers would have purchased without a coupon, referral payment or introductory offer. Their discounts are real reductions even when the attributed order count looks strong. The promotion guides show how to retain that counterfactual, define the time window and avoid subtracting the same discount twice. All redemption, retention and conversion shares are hypothetical scenario inputs rather than platform benchmarks.
Recovery decisions start at a different point: the original sale or return has already happened. Compare future resale proceeds with reconditioning, handling and disposal costs, keeping earlier refunds outside that forward comparison when they are unchanged. Use the linked tables to inspect a scenario before entering your own records into the calculator.
Calculators for this decision
Enter your own quantities, costs and timing assumptions.
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Calculator
Promotion Contribution Lift Calculator
Compare the contribution from a discounted campaign with a no-promotion baseline and calculate the volume…
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Calculator
Coupon Campaign Incrementality Calculator
Separate genuinely additional coupon orders from customers who would have bought anyway, then calculate the…
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Calculator
Returned Inventory Recovery Calculator
Calculate future net recovery from a batch of returned goods after handling, reconditioning and disposal,…
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Calculator
Channel Migration Contribution Calculator
Test whether a channel move covers lost order volume and transition spending after comparing per-order…
Guides and comparisons
Choose the distinct reader question that matches the decision.
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Guide
Promotion Incrementality: Compare with a Baseline
Compare a promotion with a stated no-offer baseline, including discounts on natural purchases, additional…
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Guide
Budget Coupon Redemptions Before a Campaign
Estimate coupon exposure at different redemption levels, separate forgone revenue from cash payments, and…
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Guide
Discount Cannibalization: Price the Lost Full Sales
Measure how concessions on purchases that would happen anyway can offset contribution from genuinely…
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Guide
Estimate the Cost of Loyalty Points
Convert issued loyalty points into expected reward fulfillment costs while keeping face value, redemption…
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Guide
Referral Rewards: Count Both Sides of the Offer
Budget referrer and new-customer rewards together, verify qualifying orders, and compare referred contribution…
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Comparison
Affiliate Commission vs Fixed Sponsorship
Compare a hypothetical sales commission with a fixed sponsorship fee using the same order economics, then test…
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Comparison
Cashback vs Instant Discount: Cost and Timing
Compare an immediate price reduction with a later cashback payment, including claim assumptions,…
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Guide
Free Trials: Conversion and Contribution
Calculate the paid conversion needed to cover all trial users, acquisition, and setup within a finite…
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Comparison
Introductory vs Renewal Pricing Economics
Follow an introductory subscription price into later paid periods and compare finite cohort contribution…
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Comparison
Subscription Pauses vs Cancellations
Compare a temporary pause with cancellation using explicit service costs, return probabilities,…
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Guide
Measure a Customer Reactivation Campaign
Evaluate dormant-customer offers against natural return purchases, with clear cohort eligibility,…
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Comparison
Upsell vs Cross-Sell: Incremental Contribution
Compare an upgrade with an additional item using the contribution change, offer acceptance, fulfillment…
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Guide
Price an Abandoned-Cart Recovery Offer
Compare a cart-recovery discount with natural checkout returns, including basket contribution, offer timing,…
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Comparison
Restock or Liquidate a Returned Product
Compare future net recovery from a returned item with immediate liquidation, including processing, selling…
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Comparison
Exchange vs Refund: Follow the Incremental Cash
Compare an agreed exchange with a refund using replacement costs, retained payment, return handling, and…
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Guide
Budget for Damaged-Delivery Replacements
Estimate replacement costs and uncertain carrier or supplier recoveries separately, with a cohort allowance…
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Guide
Moving Sales Channels: Retention and Transition Costs
Model moving existing order volume to another sales channel with customer retention, new unit costs,…
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Guide
Payment Disputes: Outcome Cost Scenarios
Separate an initial disputed-payment debit from final outcome costs, using entered fees, recovery…
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Guide
Digital Products: Include Support Cost per Buyer
Estimate support contacts, handling time, and cost per digital-product buyer, then connect that workload to…
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Guide
Gift Card Redemption: Cash and Delivery Obligations
Track gift-card issuance receipts, redeemed value, remaining obligations, and later fulfillment costs in an…
Reference tables and worked examples
Follow the intermediate arithmetic and compare the model boundaries.
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Chart
Coupon Incrementality Reference Table
Compare coupon contribution at different incremental order shares, including the threshold where additional…
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Chart
Returned Goods Recovery Reference
Trace net recovery from returned goods at five resale shares, including reconditioning, handling and…
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Chart
Worked Example: Coupon Orders and Natural Buyers
Reconcile profitable coupon orders with a campaign loss by separating customers who would buy anyway from…
Complete tool directory
Browse the other pricing, staffing and cash-flow models.
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Collection
All Calculators
Browse pricing, break-even, e-commerce, freelance, staffing and cash-flow calculators, with topic workbooks…
Method reference: OpenStax: Relevant Information for Decisions. Checked October 22, 2026. Relevant future cost and counterfactual comparisons; all commercial assumptions are supplied by the user.
Related calculators & guides
- Promotion Incrementality: Compare with a Baseline
- Budget Coupon Redemptions Before a Campaign
- Discount Cannibalization: Price the Lost Full Sales
- Estimate the Cost of Loyalty Points
- Referral Rewards: Count Both Sides of the Offer
- Affiliate Commission vs Fixed Sponsorship
- Cashback vs Instant Discount: Cost and Timing
- Free Trials: Conversion and Contribution
- Introductory vs Renewal Pricing Economics
- Subscription Pauses vs Cancellations
- Measure a Customer Reactivation Campaign
- Upsell vs Cross-Sell: Incremental Contribution
- Price an Abandoned-Cart Recovery Offer
- Restock or Liquidate a Returned Product
- Exchange vs Refund: Follow the Incremental Cash
- Budget for Damaged-Delivery Replacements
- Moving Sales Channels: Retention and Transition Costs
- Payment Disputes: Outcome Cost Scenarios
- Digital Products: Include Support Cost per Buyer
- Gift Card Redemption: Cash and Delivery Obligations
- Promotion Contribution Lift Calculator
- Coupon Campaign Incrementality Calculator
- Returned Inventory Recovery Calculator
- Channel Migration Contribution Calculator
- Coupon Incrementality Reference Table
- Returned Goods Recovery Reference
- Worked Example: Coupon Orders and Natural Buyers
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